A Second Cycle is Almost Always a Mistake
An analytical look at the second cycle for USMNT Managers, and a discussion of what that means for the Berhalter Era moving forward.
When I arrived at Fedex Field in Washington D.C. for the USMNT tune-up match with Colombia, expectations were low. The Colombians were coming in riding a 21-match unbeaten run going back to their failure to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. Excited Colombia supporters filled the stadium, ready to support their squad as they prepared for the upcoming Copa América tournament. The USMNT looked to have an uphill battle in their first friendly of the summer to earn a result against a team flying higher than almost anyone in the world.
By the end of the match, it was clear that even my low expectations were not met by the performance. Despite looking good for stretches of the game, the Yanks spent far too much time struggling with basic aspects of the game of soccer. Wingers dribbled into triple teams. Outside backs cleared balls into the path of on-rushing attackers. Centerbacks gave the ball away cheaply to dangerous strikers who were more than willing to punish the US for simple mistakes. The comedy of errors ended in a 5-1 route and earned a place in history as one of the worst defeats of the 21st century for the USMNT.
While I have historically been slow to criticize Berhalter, this is not an isolated incident. There have now been several friendlies dating back to Berhalter’s first cycle in which the team looked slow and disinterested. The US managed to right the ship against Brazil, looking out much more motivated and active in a 1-1 draw just a few days later. However, there are still concerns surrounding Berhalter’s ability to motivate his team when preparing for major tournaments. There will be a lot on the line for Berhalter in the Copa America. The pressure is on, and failure to perform will likely mean a coaching change for the Yanks before preparation begins in earnest for the 2026 World Cup.
What would it take for Berhalter to be fired? Many different answers exist to this question. Some would argue that it is long overdue. Others say that his job is safe regardless of what happens this summer. The true answer likely lies somewhere in the middle, and one way that it can be answered is by taking a look at the data from performances by other USMNT managers who have been handed second World Cup cycles. By doing a deep dive on this question, we can hopefully arrive at an answer to the question of Berhatler’s job security. However, there is a larger fundamental point that I hope to make in taking this deep dive. One that I think proves to be almost a universal law of the international game: “Second Cycles are (Almost) Always a Mistake”. Managers rarely seem to do well when granted a second cycle, and the USMNT has been far from immune to this effect. Let’s take a historical look at the Elo rating data for the US to see how poor these second cycles have gone for USMNT managers.
Bob Bradley
Bob Bradley took the helm of the US at the start of 2007. He inherited a team that was in a state of transition, with an Elo rating of 1775. His first cycle was a mixed bag, but can be largely thought of as a successful cycle for the team. Bradley won his first Gold Cup in 2007 by beating Mexico 2-1 in the Final, but things came crashing down almost immediately after 3 straight losses to Argentina, Paraguay, and Colombia at the Copa América later in the summer. The team responded well, and went on to qualify for the 2010 World Cup.
Due to their Gold Cup win in 2007, Bradley’s side earned the right to play in the 2009 Confederation Cup. The 2009 Confederation Cup ended tragically after the US blew a 2-0 lead against Brazil in the Final, but the run to that Final appearance is historic for US fans. This magical run included one of the most famous wins in program history, when the US bested Spain in the semifinal just months before their World Cup title. This Confederation’s Cup run allowed Bradley to push the US to an Elo rating of 1889, which is one of the highest ratings that they have ever had.
Unfortunately, the good fortune of the US under Bradley could not last. A crushing 5-0 loss to Mexico in the 2009 Gold Cup Final would see the US lose all of their hard-earned Elo points from the summer, and never regain them under Bradley. The US struggled through their group at the 2010 World Cup, only advancing due to Landon Donovan’s late game heroics versus Algeria. After an extra time loss to Ghana in the Round of 16, Bradley’s squad ended with a worse Elo rating than when he took the helm, finishing at 1769.
Bradley’s second cycle was short. He only served as manager for 14 matches before being let go. A series of draws and losses in friendlies led straight into another bad loss to Mexico in the 2011 Gold Cup Final. Bradley was fired shortly after the tournament with the USMNT’s Elo Rating sitting at 1738.
The second cycle was possibly cut too short in this case, but the results were not promising. During Bradley’s first cycle, he had managed to take the team from 1775 to 1889 in Elo by performing well at major tournaments and in World Cup Qualifying. Without those major results going his way, the series of poor friendlies was enough to shorten the leash so much that a bad Gold Cup loss was the final straw. While Bradley had presided over bad tournaments in his first cycle, he was not given the same leeway to fix things during his second go round. USSF saw the form of the team dip, and they went in a different direction.
Jurgen Klinsmann
Jurgen Klinsmann is the second manager of the century to not survive his second cycle. Leaving aside critiques of his tactics and man management, Klinsmann’s first World Cup Cycle was an undoubted success. The US won the 2013 Gold Cup in a tournament where Mexico failed to reach the final. They also topped the Hexagonal, qualifying for the World Cup with ease. Despite the controversial omission of Landon Donovan from the World Cup roster, Klinsmann saw his team out of the group by beating Ghana in a revenge match and drawing Portugal in a back-and-forth game. In the Round of 16 against Belgium, a Chris Wondolowski missed chance in extra time would prove to be the dagger. Belgium advanced in extra time and Klinsmann’s second cycle began.
While the first cycle was largely successful, the second cycle of the Klinsmann era can only be described as an “unmitigated disaster”. It started with the team finding some strong results. Friendly wins against Mexico, the Netherlands, and Germany indicated that the Yanks were ready to continue the trend of success that had defined the first cycle under Klinsmann. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off during the 2015 Gold Cup Semifinal when Jamaica managed to beat the USMNT 2-1, becoming the first Caribbean nation to do so in 50 years. Panama would then beat the shell-shocked side on penalties in the 3rd Place match, leaving the US with an unprecedented 4th place finish at their continental championships.
After the 2015 Gold Cup, the US would go on to lose to Mexico, Costa Rica, and Guatemala within the next year and draw Trinidad and Tobago away. Their Elo rating would fall from 1870 to 1721 in just 10 months: a drop of 150 points. Copa America 2016 became an important tournament for the side, and it seemed like the team responded well. The Yanks defeated Costa Rica, Paraguay, and Ecuador en route to a semifinal appearance. However, Lionel Messi and Argentina were waiting in the semifinal, ending the run with a dominant 4-0 win. The final nail in the coffin came as the Hexagonal started, and the US started their final round of World Cup Qualifying for 2018. A home 2-0 loss to Mexico and an away 4-0 thrashing in Costa Rica were enough for Klinsmann to be dismissed. Their Elo rating had cratered from 1781 down to 1735, and Bruce Arena was brought back to try and finish the job (we won’t talk about how that ended).
Bruce Arena
Bruce Arena was the first manager to be trusted as the USMNT manager for multiple World Cup cycles. Under Arena’s watchful eye, the US saw great success in their first cycle. Arena took over the team in late 1998 and immediately saw success. He led the US to a 3rd Place finish in the 1999 Confederations Cup and a championship in the 2002 Gold Cup. His team finished second in World Cup Qualifying, and their only major competitive snag happened in the 2000 Gold Cup, when they lost in a Quarterfinal penalty shootout to Colombia. Certainly the biggest accomplishment that the US achieved during Arena’s first cycle was his success at the 2002 World Cup. The US made it out of a group containing South Korea, Portugal, and Poland. They then achieved their famous “Dos-A-Cero” result, beating Mexico in the Round of 16 before losing in dramatic fashion to Germany in the Quarterfinal.
A Quarterfinal appearance is still the best finish that the US have ever had at the World Cup. Arena’s team rode their World Cup success into a very successful second cycle. They lost to Brazil in the 2003 Gold Cup semifinal and won the 2005 edition of the tournament. Their success in 2006 World Cup qualification (topping the Hexagonal) earned the US their best-ever FIFA ranking of 4th in the world. In a lot of ways, this is a string of surprising results. We have seen above that multiple managers struggle to find results in their second cycle. They struggle competitively against CONCACAF and friendlies do not end in strong results. The second cycle of Arena was largely immune to these effects. Outside of a poor 2003 Confederations’ Cup, there is little that you can criticize his team for.
A successful World Cup would have been the final feather in Arena’s cap, but unfortunately, that was not in the cards. Despite the USMNT flying high as they came into Germany 2006, the results were poor. A draw against the eventual champions Italy and losses to the Czech Republic and Ghana saw the US exit in the Group State after earning just a single point. Bruce Arena’s contract would not be renewed after this disappointing tournament, and the Bob Bradley era soon began. While the Americans’ Elo rating had stayed above 1800 fairly consistently in Arena’s second cycle, it all came crashing down at the World Cup. At the time of his departure, the team had lost 114 Elo points since their peak in September of 2005 (another Mexico “Dos-A-Cero” game).
Lessons From the Past
We have now seen plots of the Elo ratings history for the USMNT under three different two-cycle managers. Why graph the Elo ratings? What lessons can we learn from this exercise? Well, it really depends. Elo ratings are not perfect, but the trend of how points are won and lost can provide valuable information. You gain Elo points when you win meaningful matches or beat teams better than you. You lose Elo points when you lose meaningful matches or fail to beat teams worse than you. If a team is losing Elo points, then they are either failing to show up in key matches or dropping points against teams that they should beat.
The sample size is small, but there are some worrying trends that we can see. It is very clear from the tenures of both Bradley and Klinsmann that there is a real risk of a “second cycle slide” when you bring back your manager after a successful World Cup. In their second cycles, the outcomes were generally worse in tournaments. Friendlies ended with disappointing results more often. Only Arena’s team seemed immune to this slide. They are the only group to win the Gold Cup in a second cycle and to top the World Cup Qualifying Hexagonal in CONCACAF. However, even this group was not immune to disappointment as Arena’s second World Cup is the only Group Stage exit that the US has faced since the turn of the century.
It is unclear what exactly causes the slide. Likely, there are a mix of factors that play into it. One major factor is players getting comfortable. Every manager will have favorite players, the ones that they trust. If a manager is slow to move on from his “guys”, then the team can get complacent as the pool stagnates. Additionally, a long-term manager likely gets “figured out” by their opponents after a few years. Holding on to the same manager for too long will give opponents too much film and too much practice playing against the same system. They are far likelier to figure out a way to beat whatever tactics are being employed. Finally, there is likely some luck that goes into it. Sometimes, the ball goes in the back of the net. If you coach a team for long enough, you are bound to eventually hit a rough spell where your opponents are scoring on you. A spell like that can really affect motivation and hurt the team moving forward.
In second cycles, the margins are tighter and the expectations are higher. Results that would have been tolerated from a first cycle manager no longer seem to fly for the higher-ups at US Soccer Federation HQ. Looking at Elo trends, we can get a rough idea of the “Line of Doom” for a second cycle manager. Klinsmann and Bradley were both fired shortly after the Elo rating of their team dropped below 1750 points for the first time in their second cycle. Bradley’s departure was almost instantaneous. Klinsmann was briefly rescued by the Copa America before a second fall below 1750 points sent him packing in the subsequent fall. Bruce Arena never fell below the 1750 mark in his second cycle. He was able to get enough consistent results to avoid dropping into the danger zone.
Now, I do not think that the US Soccer Federation is charting the Elo ratings and using them to make important personnel decisions. However, these ratings give you an idea of the performance trends for a team. Generally 1750 points will keep you inside the World Top 30 by Elo. If you fall below that as the United States, then you clearly are under-performing. The US is a nation who expect to get out of the group at every World Cup. We are not world powers, but we should be a top team in the confederation, and our Elo rating is a decent reflection of whether or not we are achieving that goal.
The Berhalter Era
The Berhatler era has largely been successful since the Summer of 2021. Under Berhatler, the US have won three straight CONCACAF Nation's Leagues. They won the 2021 Gold Cup without their best players. They escaped a good group at the World Cup to appear in the Round of 16. However, the second cycle has been marred by some very poor performances. Most notably, the away loss to Trinidad and Tobago and the loss to Germany stand out on the Elo graph, costing the US over 50 points between the two. The loss to Colombia comes on the heels of a great Nation’s League performance against Mexico, which pulled Berhalter away from the “Line of Doom” that he was inching towards after Trinidad and Tobago. Colombia knocked the US back down to 1786 points, which is uncomfortably close to the 1750 line.
When you consider the loss to Trinidad and the lack of effort in some poor friendly performances, it becomes necessary to question the decision to re-hire Berhatler for a second time. The players fought for Berhalter to have a second chance to bring this young squad to glory. However, the history of the program suggests that the decision to listen to the players and keep the manager around may have been a poor one. No matter how much talent the US may currently have, they do not seem immune to the “second cycle slide”. The problems that have existed in second cycles of other managers may be starting to show up again.
Drawing Brazil could prove to be an important result. Unfortunately, that may not end up being enough. Copa America starts next week, and it will be the first true competitive test for the second cycle of the Berhalter era. The US will need results this summer if they want to stay above that “Line of Doom”. Any loss to Bolivia or Panama will likely seal Berhatler’s fate and send them below 1750 points. Even if the Yanks avoid getting grouped at Copa America, multiple goal losses to Uruguay and a potential quarterfinal opponent would likely prove to be unacceptable for Matt Crocker and Cindy Parlow Cone.
It will take a strong showing for the US to keep Berhalter out of the “danger zone”. The easiest path is to beat Bolivia and Panama and to surprise one either Uruguay or Brazil/Colombia in the quarterfinals of Copa America. A slightly easier scenario involves pulling out a draw against one of these teams, which will have a similar effect on the Elo ratings. Even two competitive 1-goal losses against Top 10 teams in the world would potentially be enough, but the path there is risky and could still result in Berhalter’s dismissal.
There is no denying that this is do or die time for a group that heavily advocated for their current manager. How will a team that has largely grown up playing together respond to the adversity? Can they find a way to win against some of the world’s best international sides? No matter what happens, we will learn a lot about what this generation is made of when they take the field with the Copa America on the line.
Thank you for reading this article! Please leave a comment to share your thoughts and consider subscribing to be notified of upcoming articles that are currently in the works.